The Lance Effect

Images: WTC, Daniel Norton

On the surface, Lance Armstrong officially returning to competitive endurance sports via Ironman triathlon is intriguing and newsworthy. The impact he could potentially have on the sport, however, may go infinitely deeper with far-reaching implications. Ironman 70.3 Panama today was the first of the series to welcome Lance and his entourage (3,279,274 Twitter followers at the time this post was written) to this type of competition. How many of his followers knew about Ironman? How many knew about the 70.3 series? How many people knew there was a race this weekend in Panama? What is currently known is Lance plans to race four 70.3 races and Ironman France in attempt to qualify for Kona. Not yet known are the answers to the many questions arising from his move back to triathlon, including:

• What will be the media impact on the sport? Judging by the reported circus around 70.3 Panama, and the immense amount of social media conversation since the announcement, it's safe to say substantial. Media coverage and publicity will drive the most significant measurables and be a catalyst for incremental sponsorship, registration and interest in triathlon. Looking at the numbers, according to a 2010 article in Ad Week, Versus (now NBC Sports Network) reported an average of 530,000 viewers for TV coverage of the Tour de France in 2009, the year Lance came out of retirement to ride again. Compare this number to 2008, the third year post-Lance's run of victories, and the viewership averaged 268,000. It's hard to say right now if live TV coverage will happen this year (maybe Kona?), but with more attention and interest in watching Lance compete against a new set of pros, we could see an increase in occurrences of live broadcasts. Also, as NBC begins to increase it's footprint in sports broadcasting, how will they piece together a season of coverage between major network programming (NBC), cable programming (NBC Sports Network), and niche programming (NBC Universal) if mainstream viewers want to see Lance compete? Incidentally, what is the potential for live web streaming and better online coverage?
• Will registration numbers of those races increase? Will registration to 70.3 and Ironman increase overall? Now that Lance has announced his schedule, chances are good those 70.3 events will sell out. They may have sold out anyway, but what endurance athlete wouldn't want to race in the same event as a 7-time yellow jersey winner? There is the potential for those four events to cannibalize spots from other races by athletes choosing between options, but with so much attention on an already growing sport, it could be a banner year for the 70.3 series. The impact on interest in the sport and an increase in registration may not be visible for a couple years, but looking back there may be a discernible bump.
• If the demand is great enough, will race registration fees increase as well? Triathlon already attracts one of the more affluent participant bases, which is understandable given the high cost of entry compared to some other activities. Still, with 70.3 race fees approaching $300 and Ironman fees around $600 (first U.S. Championship in NYC at $895), where is the tipping point? Or is there a tipping point? It's up to race management to find the price pinnacle where the demand still is matches the supply. Of course, they could choose to maintain the price levels if sponsors flock their way...
• How will this impact sponsorship? With increased media, participation and general interest in triathlon, no doubt brands will be on the lookout to increase sponsorship efforts. From non-endemic brands looking to capitalize on the demographic, to endemic endurance brands trying to gain market share, there should be a marked influx in sponsorship revenue to races. And athletes for that matter, as triathlon gets more attention and pros swim, ride and run alongside in Lance's spotlight. And how about the benefit to Lance's sponsors, who must have been thrilled about the federal case being dropped, and now the increased exposure in triathlon for Nike, Trek, Honey Stinger, FRS, Michelob Ultra, Nissan, Radio Shack, SRAM, Oakley and 24 Hour Fitness. How long has this been the master plan and were these sponsors aware when they signed their respective deals? And speaking of Nike...
• Will Nike begin making Livestrong triathlon apparel? Easy to think they would. Efforts by Nike to get into greater cycling apparel/shoes was minimal if unsuccessful, even during Lance's string of Tour victories, but jerseys co-branded with Livestrong are available online and sales help support the Foundation. It's doubtful Nike will roll out a full line of triathlon apparel, but it's possible and Livestrong items will surely arrive soon to the LAF online store.
• Will the LAF/WTC partnership get lost in the mix? A majority of the chatter regarding Lance's announcement centers on the face he is competing. Even though the Lance Armstrong Foundation partnership with WTC initially led most of the stories and headlines, it comprised a small percentage of the coverage overall. The goal of $1 million raised seems achievable, and while racing will most certainly dominate the publicity, incremental support and donations will follow and result in greater philanthropic benefit - so should it matter?
• How long will Lance compete? Supposing only he knows the answer to that, the triathlon industry should look to capitalize while the iron is hot. 

This brings about more questions than answers, but ultimately Lance has the potential to bring a dynamic level of impact to the sport of triathlon.